The GOP needs to flip just two seats to win control of the state House.
LANSING, Michigan — Even Michigan Republicans admit their state party had descended into chaos.
Over the last few years, the MAGA movement fractured the Michigan Republican Party, leaving it saddled with more than half a million dollars in debt, lackluster candidate recruitment, leadership infighting — and physical violence. That dysfunction helped Democrats take complete statewide control in the 2022 midterms for the first time in 40 years.
But under a new party leadership, GOP leaders insist the drama is behind them, and they have an opportunity to prove it: flipping the state House in November and revoking Democrats’ prized trifecta they used to enact a bold progressive plan.
Michigan is one of the country’s key battlegrounds as Democrats and Republicans tussle for control of state legislatures. The GOP has dominated state capitals for more than a decade, but Democrats are ramping up their spending on these contests throughout the U.S. With Congress largely hamstrung by divided control, state legislatures are increasingly setting the country’s policy agenda.
Riding high after their two years in control, Democrats say they are the party with the money and the momentum. What Democrats have done in Michigan has created a blueprint for Democrats across the country on how to wield newfound power at the state level.
The November matchup will also be a test of which party has the strongest ground game: who can assemble their teams of campaign volunteers to knock the most doors and distribute the most mailers, all in an effort to overcome the lack of name ID down ballot candidates face. But the intense national interest here in Michigan has transformed the nature of these races, upping the pressure on Democrats to maintain their hold on the state Legislature and on Republicans to take it away.
“Republicans are hungry and have been out of power completely in this state,” said Adrian Hemond, CEO of bipartisan consulting firm Grassroots Midwest. “The state GOP is in the worst shape it’s been in decades. There’s room to grow, but they’re definitely behind.”
Yard sign standoff
It’s hard to go even a few hundred yards in Downriver, a region of metropolitan Detroit, without seeing Trump memorabilia draped on front porches or decorating lawns. This area historically is a blue union stronghold, but it has trended toward Republicans in recent cycles, underscoring the tough task Democratic state Rep. Jaime Churches faces in her reelection bid. She won her 2022 race as a first-time candidate by just 660 votes, making her part of the wave of new Democrats who landed in Lansing when the party flipped four seats in both the House and Senate.
When she’s not at the state capital, Churches, a 36-year-old former elementary school teacher, spends her days handing out mailers and talking to voters in the six towns — five of which have Republican mayors — that make up her district. Her team of volunteers has knocked on thousands of doors since March, and in the summer months leading up to the election encountered Democrats seeking Harris-Walz signs to counter the Trump-Vance ones.
Democrats are making the bet that voters will continue to split their ticket, like in 2020 when Trump won state Sen. Darrin Camilleri’s Downriver district by eight points but voters elected the Democratic lawmaker by five points.
Churches faces Republican Rylee Linting, a 22-year-old first-time candidate who emerged from a three-way Republican primary to represent this district that has been flagged as a top pickup opportunity for the GOP.
Linting grew up in Downriver, according to her campaign website, and attended Grand Valley State University in Allendale, Michigan, “where she faced indoctrination, vaccination mandates, and woke student culture,” motivating her to get involved in politics. She served as youth chair of the Michigan Republican Party and currently works as a field representative for Turning Point Action, Charlie Kirk’s conservative organization that is deploying an aggressive get-out-the-vote operation in battleground states.
Linting did not respond to multiple requests for comment.
In Lansing, Churches joined with her caucus to pass long-sought initiatives like repealing pension income taxes, increasing education funding by $500 million and providing free meals to all students. Democrats are heavily campaigning on that policy record and telling voters to send them back to work so they can build on those accomplishments.
“That’s why I’m doing this,” Churches said, briefly pausing in between doors on a September afternoon, 56 days before the election. “We need more time.”
Churches and other House Democrats in tight races have benefited from the support of labor unions, who see showing up for these candidates as payback for the progressive labor policies enacted by the Legislature, like repealing right-to-work and restoring prevailing wage requirements. Labor groups continue to be top Democratic donors, giving more than $2.4 million to candidates.
The expanding constellation of state legislature-oriented PACs and national groups has aided those efforts. The Republican State Leadership Committee, the national organization devoted to down-ballot races, has flagged Michigan as a top target.
Republicans have used some of those dollars to air TV ads and distribute mailers months earlier than they did in 2022, a strategic move they say puts them in a stronger position than past cycles.
And Republicans benefit from the generous contributions of the DeVos family, a presence that looms large in Michigan politics. Members of the DeVos family, who are heirs to the Amway fortune and include former Trump Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, have given more than $800,000 to Republicans this cycle, according to Bridge Michigan.
“We’ve created a system or operation that will win no matter if we’re in a good environment or bad environment or neutral,” said Rep. Bill Schuette, chair of the HRCC.
While the HRCC is posting fundraising records, the state party still has near-empty coffers. The latest financial report shows the party owes $184,000 in its state account and has only $384,000 on hand in its federal campaign account.
On the Democratic side, the emergence of groups such as the States Project and Forward Majority have directed more funds toward electing Democrats to state legislatures, as the party calculates its broader strategy of rebuilding power within the states. But despite Democratic fundraising gains, Republicans continue to dominate on the national stage.
Republicans are centering their message around the economy and school safety, arguing that Democrats are responsible for high cost of living and dangerous schools, in particular targeting a $300 million cut to mental health and school safety in the latest budget.
The House Republican Campaign Committee in early September rolled out a “Mission for Michigan” policy platform previewing the agenda they will pursue should they retake power. A Day One priority would be reversing a minimum wage hike ordered by the state Supreme Court, said Rep. Bryan Posthumus, GOP minority floor leader. Republicans say that the court decision compromises the restaurant and bar industry, which is already struggling with high labor costs.
Should a divided government materialize, Republicans see their role as standing in opposition to Whitmer by blocking legislation and trying to slow her rise. While Democrats succeeded in pushing through a significant amount of legislation despite narrow margins in both the House and Senate, gridlock is guaranteed in a split Legislature.
“We’re going to be the brakes,” Posthumus said. “We’ve been careening down this hill of California progressivism for the past two years. We’ll be able to put a stop to that.”
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