A look at 2020 results give an indication of crucial states Donald Trump needs to clinch to win the race to White House against Kamala Harris.
It’s one of the most anticipated election showdowns in US history. Donald Trump is on a mission to get back to White House, leaving no stone unturned—or un-tweeted. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris is pulling out all the stops to make history as the first woman president. But the road to White House won’t be easy for either as public opinion remains locked in a nail-biting tie even two days ahead of polling day.
The swing states? Neck and neck. The national stage? A cliffhanger. Every pollster is expecting e a wild ride even as Washington DC is getting ready for civic unrest on the back of Trump’s early signs of calling the election process rigged.
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Two days before the election day New York Times national average is favouring Kamala Harris by a whisker with 49% win margin against 48% for Donald Trump.
As the poll pundits indicate, it will all come down to 6 swing states that will call the US election where Trump and Kamala are fighting neck and neck
The New York Times and Siena College final poll finds Vice President Kamala Harris showing new strength in North Carolina and Georgia as Donald Trump erases her lead in Pennsylvania and maintaining his advantage in Arizona. She still has a lead in 3 key stated and tied in two.
These seven battleground states will determine who clinches 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.
HT in US: Special Coverage of the American elections by Prashant Jha
2020 swing-state margins that helped Biden win
A comparison between 2020 and 2016 U.S. presidential elections results provide critical insights into the swing states that influenced Donald Trump’s loss in 2020.
With very narrow margin key states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania flipped from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020.
If Trump secures his 2020 wins that include North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, and Texas among the big swing states, he would only need to secure Georgia and Pennsylvania. However, that would rely on whether North Carolina will still bet on Trump.
According to a CNN analysis Trump already has 24 states in his kitty – totalling 219 votes and would need 51 more to cross the 270 majority mark.
2020 Wisconsin Results
In 2016, Trump narrowly won Wisconsin by 0.77%, marking a significant shift as the state had supported Democrats since 1988. However, in 2020, Biden won by a slim margin of 0.63%.
2020 Michigan Results
Trump’s 2016 victory in Michigan was razor-thin, with a margin of 0.23%. In 2020, Biden reclaimed the state with a margin of 2.78%. The key difference was the resurgence of Democratic support in the Detroit and a stronger appeal to suburban voters concerned with Trump’s handling of issues like the COVID-19 pandemic and racial tensions.
2020 Pennsylvania Results
Pennsylvania saw a similar pattern. Trump’s 2016 margin was 0.72%, but Biden flipped the state in 2020 with a margin of 1.16%. Philadelphia and its suburbs, which turned out heavily for Biden, played a decisive role, along with increased voter mobilisation in favour of Democrats.
2020 election results learnings
In these three critical states, ailed by anti-incumbency, Trump’s inability to maintain the coalition of rural, working-class, and some suburban voters from 2016 led to his 2020 defeat. Biden’s strategy focused on rebuilding the “Blue Wall” by appealing to moderate and disaffected voters, emphasizing unity and competent governance.
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