India-Canada diplomatic ties at new low, but air connectivity soars to new high

The last 24 hours have been turbulent for India-Canada diplomatic ties. What started as an escalation following the ASEAN summit in LAO DPR last week has led to India pulling out its diplomats and expelling six Canadian diplomats. Rather than the culmination of a year-long diplomatic tussle, this now looks all set to get bigger. More often than not, aviation is a popular geo-political tool. Pakistan blocked off airspace for Indian carriers and flights bound to and from India after the Balakot strike in early 2019. India and China are yet to resume direct air connectivity post-COVID. The Russian airspace was not used by Western carriers after Russia attacked Ukraine and Russian carriers were banned from Western airspace.

An IndiGo aircraft and an Air India aircraft on the tarmac at Indira Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi.

Amidst the diplomatic row between India and Canada, the air connectivity is at its peak this winter. A look at data shared by Cirium, an aviation analytics company, exclusively for this article shows that this December there will be 39 weekly non-stop flights between India and Canada, an increase of 20 over December 2019, the last winter pre-COVID.

A report from Forbes mentioned that Indians going to Canada have quadrupled since 2013, as more Indians opt for relatively easy immigration to Canada over the USA. The Indian Canadians also have a pattern of travel, visiting India during the winter months which are harsher in Canada and returning for the Canadian summer, avoiding harsher Indian summer. This leads to more seasonality in the traffic. Apart from the non-stop flights, flights via European hubs and the Middle East are popular. Data released by DGCA shows that for direct flights between India and Canada, the Oct-Dec quarter of 2024 saw 98827 passengers fly directly from Canada to India. This number dropped to 82383 in the April to June quarter of 2025, when the return traffic (India to Canada) was higher at 95518 passengers. This data does not capture the traffic which moves via other hubs on one or two-stop flights.

Which cities are connected?

This winter, Air India is offering 21 weekly flights to Canada, all from Delhi with twice daily service to Toronto and a daily service to Vancouver. Air Canada on the other hand will offer 18 non-stop services with a daily service from Toronto and Montreal to Delhi and a four times a week service to Mumbai from Toronto. The airline will also serve the Calgary – Delhi market with a one-stop via London, also offering Delhi – London flights.

While diplomatic relations may be going downhill, India and Canada revised the Bilateral Air Services Agreement (BASA) in 2022, allowing unlimited flights between the two countries. This is a sharp increase from the 35 weekly flights under the earlier agreement. The deal is not open skies in the true sense since the Canadian side is restricted to the six metro only, while Indian access is to Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, Edmonton and two additional points which can be selected later.

In terms of seats on offer for the non-stop flights, Air India will deploy the B777-300ER aircraft offering 7182 weekly seats between India and Canada while Air Canada will operate a mix of B777-200LR and 787-9 aircraft offering 5386 weekly seats. Additional 2086 seats will be on offer by Air Canada for its Delhi – London Heathrow – Calgary flight.

Will there be an impact?

It is rare to go back on an agreement signed recently. However, at the bottom of all problems is safety and security. The Kanishka bombing of 1985 has Canadian links and nothing is as supreme as a threat to safety and security. The government and the airline keep reviewing and taking extra measures to ensure the safe operation of the plane along with crew, passengers and cargo. How the situation develops, escalates and threat assessment is done will dictate the direct air connectivity going forward. It is too early to tell if there will be an impact or not.

he impact on tourism and student population could be visible over the next few quarters. In terms of Foreign Tourist Arrivals, India is yet to reach pre-COVID numbers while Indians have been travelling more and more across the world. India and Canada are trade partners but the trade, both imports and exports is less than 1% of the total for India.

What next?

There are tacit ways of diplomacy which are followed everywhere. This includes clearing the trade or flights but working slowly to do things, rather than outrightly rejecting the request, clearing visas at the last moment amongst others.

Apart from the political posturing, how the allies and diplomats handle the back channel talks and get things in order soon is what will decide the future of India-Canada ties.