How the Bengaluru rain can impact India’s chances of reaching third consecutive WTC Final

Persistent rain in Bengaluru has put a pale of doubt over whether a result could be possible in the first Test between India and New Zealand. While the first day of the Test was washed out, the forecast for the next few days this week in the city also looks bleak. India had miraculously managed to force a result out of their second Test against Bangladesh which was also hampered by rain and they may now have to do the same against the Kiwis if there is any play possible in the match.

This is effectively the second leg of India’s Test season in 2024/25, and the second part of their final stretch of matches before the 2025 World Test Championship Final. While India are sitting pretty at the top of the table at the moment, they are far from being guaranteed a spot in the final itself.

India currently have a points percentage (PCT) of 74.24 after playing 11 Tests. Second are Australia with 62.50 after 12 Tests, making them and India the favourites to reach the WTC Final. Sri Lanka are placed third with a PCT of 55.56 after 9 Tests while England are fourth with 45.59 after 17. South Africa round off the top five with a PCT of 38.89.

What India need to reach the WTC Final

India have played both of the WTC Finals that have been held thus far, although they are yet to win the title itself, having lost in 2021 to New Zealand and 2023 to Australia. The results of other teams could make the road easier for them. Third-placed Sri Lanka are the closest threat to the top two, having secured a dominant series win at home against New Zealand. However, their only remaining assignment in this WTC cycle is a gruelling two-Test series in South Africa. At the same time though, England could also pose a threat as they are in a strong position in their three-Test series against a struggling Pakistan. Moreover, Sri Lanka remain more than capable of springing a surprise on South Africa, having blanked them 2-0m at their home in 2018/19.

For India to qulify for the WTC Final irrespective of their rivals’ results, they needed five wins and a draw out of the 10 Tests they were scheduled to play in their final stretch of matches in the current cycle. India have already ticked off two of those victories, having beaten Bangladesh 2-0 in the series before the current one against New Zealand. They are outright favourites to do a whitewash on New Zealand considering their invincibility at home for more than a decade and due to the Kiwi’s recent poor form. However, a draw in the first Test in Bengaluru due to rain could make it important for India to record at least one victory in the series that comes after the current one, which is the five-Test Border-Gavaskar Trophy in Australia.